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AI Learning Curve

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It’s hard to make sense of the real promise of AI amidst the hype and noise.

In 2023, Google CEO Sundar Pichai famously compared AI to the creation of fire and invention of electricity on an episode of 60 Minutes.

By 2024, the hype cycle around AI gave way to the trough of disillusionment, as many businesses struggled to see the immediate value that matched their expectations (and investment). Linus Torvalds, creator of Linux, recently described the tech industry around AI as “90 percent marketing and ten percent reality.”

Evidenza co-founders Peter Weinberg and Jon Lombardo recently argued in MarketingWeek against this AI disillusionment pendulum swing, saying that the “the bubble isn’t in AI – it’s in AI denial.” It’s not about the potential of the technology; it’s how we navigate the learning curve.

As they put it:

“The amount of leverage that AI creates is proportional to the skill of its player.”

I was struck by this insight:

“Today, marketers are myopically focused on using AI for easy tasks like writing social posts. But if you give AI your easiest jobs, the efficiency gains will be limited. If you give AI your hardest jobs – like segmentation, targeting and positioning – the gains can be revolutionary…

“Most marketers are treating AI like a copywriting assistant instead of a strategic mastermind.”

I also like this assessment from Ellie Graeden, partner at Luminos.Law, in VentureBeat:

“Because AI seems like magic, it’s tempting to assume that deploying any AI application in any setting will create value. That leads organizations to “innovate” by firing off flurries of arrows and drawing bullseyes around the spots where they land. A handful of those arrows really will land in useful places — but the vast majority will yield little value for either businesses or end-users.

“To unlock the enormous potential of AI, we need to draw the bullseyes first, then put all our efforts into hitting them. For some use-cases, that might mean developing solutions that don’t involve AI; in others, it might mean using simpler, smaller, or less sexy AI deployments.”

Keynote Talks in 2025

I’m starting to plan some incredible events and collaborations in 2025. Please let me know if you’d like to talk about any events you’re planning (or know of) that you think could be a good fit.

For an idea of my approach to keynotes, here’s a full 45-minute keynote from one of my favorite events last year — the Gartner CMO Symposium in Denver.

Keynote speaking has become one of my favorite focus areas — largely because I get a chance to meet so many of you in person. I really appreciate all of your support.

Cartoon from the archives

Here’s a cartoon from 2014 on Big Data. I think the sentiment applies to the current state of AI.

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Thank you for all of your support (and cartoon material)!

-Tom

P.S. If you like these marketoons, here are a few ways to help:

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About Marketoonist

Marketoonist is the thought bubble of me, Tom Fishburne. I first started drawing cartoons as a student in the Harvard Business School newspaper (not quite as well-known for humor as the Lampoon) and later started this newsletter from a General Mills cubicle in 2002. The cartoons have followed my career ever since. I poke fun at the ever-changing world of marketing and business because I believe that laughing at ourselves can help us do our best work.