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Planning for Uncertainty

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Almost exactly 6 years ago, as things started to shut down for Covid, I drew a cartoon about the challenges of planning in a time of uncertainty.

An executive holds up a coin and says, "We need to update our forecast. Heads, this will blow over soon. Tails, it's the end of the world."

At the time I shared a quote I'd heard that I found helpful: “The worst thing to do in a time of chaos is add to it.”

That of course hasn't been the only moment of uncertainty in the last six years. Uncertainty makes it particularly hard to think about long-range planning.

Jim Hardison, co-founder of Character, shared some insights this week about brands in a time of uncertainty:

"For marketers, this volatility creates a specific problem: uncertainty undermines control. And control has always been central to how brands tell their stories.

"Traditional marketing assumes a relatively stable environment. Teams develop strategies months in advance, campaigns unfold in carefully sequenced phases, and brands guide audiences toward a narrative they have deliberately constructed. But when conditions change faster than plans can adapt, that narrative control begins to collapse. Strategies can be abandoned midstream. Messaging becomes reactive. Teams hesitate, waiting for clarity that never quite arrives.

"The result is often paralysis, or worse, generic behavior."

Jim advises that brands take a cue from improvisational theater and learn to practice what he calls "disciplined adaptability."

As he put it:

"Success depends less on executing a perfect plan and more on responding in character to changing circumstances."

I like that framing. When things are uncertain is when we most need to "respond" instead of "react."

Keynote Updates

If you missed my keynote with Freshworks last week, you can still see it here.

I’m excited for a range of in-person keynotes later this year, including Texas, Wisconsin, Mexico City, and New Zealand.

As always, please let me know if you’d like to talk about any events you’re planning (or know of) that you think could be a good fit for some cartoon levity and insight.

For an idea of my approach to keynotes, here’s a full 30-minute keynote from one of my favorite events last year — Opticon 2025 hosted by Optimizely:

Cartoon From The Archives

Here’s that cartoon I mentioned I drew in 2020. And here’s where you can read and search all 24 years of these cartoons.

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Thank you for all of your support (and cartoon material)!

-Tom

P.S. If you like these marketoons, here are a few ways to help:

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4. Buy my latest book

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About Marketoonist

Marketoonist is the thought bubble of me, Tom Fishburne. I first started drawing cartoons as a student in the Harvard Business School newspaper (not quite as well-known for humor as the Lampoon) and later started this newsletter from a General Mills cubicle in 2002. The cartoons have followed my career ever since. I poke fun at the ever-changing world of marketing and business because I believe that laughing at ourselves can help us do our best work.